Risk Control Certifies Rates, Not Magnitudes: An Audit of Selective Fetal Biometry

Authors: Zhengshuai Yang , Linna Jiang , Changyun Li , Guihu Zhao

View a PDF of the paper titled Risk Control Certifies Rates, Not Magnitudes: An Audit of Selective Fetal Biometry, by Zhengshuai Yang and 3 other authors

View PDF

HTML (experimental)

Abstract: Prenatal ultrasound biometry must return a head circumference (HC) and refuse when the image cannot support one. Selective prediction trades coverage against error, but its finite-sample guarantees bound the rate of gross errors, not their magnitude. We audit a tool-grounded biometry pipeline on two separately pre-registered four-way splits of the 999 labelled HC18 images, retraining the segmenter three times on each. Calibrating the contour-completeness threshold by exact Clopper-Pearson risk control returns a certificate indistinguishable from a hand-set floor, yet the pipeline still emits a 271.3 mm error: a small, geometrically complete ring fitted to an image whose true HC is 324.6 mm. The accepted candidate scores 0.94 completeness, so the score cannot see the failure, and one outlier among $\approx 150$ answers leaves the certified risk bound ($\alpha = 0.10$) intact. A second, untouched split reproduces the mechanism on a different image (233.3 mm). Constraining the admissibility region---the anatomical range in which the measurand is defined---removes the family instead: raising the lower bound from 50 to 55 mm costs 0.4 coverage points and cuts the worst-case error on both splits to 11.4 and 11.1 mm, whereas suppressing it through the completeness threshold costs 19.0 and 12.1 points. At an anatomically defined 70 mm the frozen tests give 1.91 and 1.81 mm MAE.

Comments:

10 pages, 2 figures, 3 tables

Subjects:

Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI) ; Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition (cs.CV)

Cite as:

arXiv:2611.05851 [cs.AI]

(or

arXiv:2611.05851v1 [cs.AI] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2611.05851

Focus to learn more

arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

Submission history

From: Zhengshuai Yang [ view email ]

[v1]

Wed, 4 Nov 2026 02:41:56 UTC (173 KB)

Full-text links:

Access Paper:

View a PDF of the paper titled Risk Control Certifies Rates, Not Magnitudes: An Audit of Selective Fetal Biometry, by Zhengshuai Yang and 3 other authors

View PDF

HTML (experimental)

TeX Source

view license

Additional Features

Audio Summary

Current browse context:

cs.AI

< prev

next >

new

recent

| 2026-11

Change to browse by:

cs

cs.CV

References & Citations

SciX

Google Scholar

Semantic Scholar

export BibTeX citation

Loading...

BibTeX formatted citation

loading...

Data provided by:

Bookmark

Bibliographic Tools

Bibliographic and Citation Tools

Bibliographic Explorer Toggle

Bibliographic Explorer ( What is the Explorer? )

Connected Papers Toggle

Connected Papers ( What is Connected Papers? )

Litmaps Toggle

Litmaps ( What is Litmaps? )

scite.ai Toggle

scite Smart Citations ( What are Smart Citations? )

Code, Data, Media

Code, Data and Media Associated with this Article

alphaXiv Toggle

alphaXiv ( What is alphaXiv? )

Links to Code Toggle

CatalyzeX Code Finder for Papers ( What is CatalyzeX? )

DagsHub Toggle

DagsHub ( What is DagsHub? )

GotitPub Toggle

Gotit.pub ( What is GotitPub? )

Huggingface Toggle

Hugging Face ( What is Huggingface? )

ScienceCast Toggle

ScienceCast ( What is ScienceCast? )

Demos

Demos

Replicate Toggle

Replicate ( What is Replicate? )

Spaces Toggle

Hugging Face Spaces ( What is Spaces? )

Spaces Toggle

TXYZ.AI ( What is TXYZ.AI? )

Related Papers

Recommenders and Search Tools

Link to Influence Flower

Influence Flower ( What are Influence Flowers? )

Core recommender toggle

CORE Recommender ( What is CORE? )

Author

Venue

Institution

Topic

About arXivLabs

arXivLabs: experimental projects with community collaborators

arXivLabs is a framework that allows collaborators to develop and share new arXiv features directly on our website.

Both individuals and organizations that work with arXivLabs have embraced and accepted our values of openness, community, excellence, and user data privacy. arXiv is committed to these values and only works with partners that adhere to them.

Have an idea for a project that will add value for arXiv's community? Learn more about arXivLabs .

Which authors of this paper are endorsers? |

Disable MathJax ( What is MathJax? )